Dave Birkett|Detroit Free Press
They finally went ahead and did it.
The Detroit Lions lost to the Buffalo Bills on Sunday to make official what we here at Draft Watch 2018 knew all along: There will be no playoffs for the Lions this year.
When we reprized Draft Watch two weeks ago, we did so believing wholeheartedly that the Lions would miss out on the postseason for a second straight year and snag a top-10 pick in April’s draft.
Our patented LIMP rating system — the Lie-down Index Meter Probability — confirmed as much last week, and with two games left in the regular season, that’s exactly where the Lions stand.
The Lions are currently seventh in the draft order,according to Tankathon.com, a few strength-of-schedule percentage points behind the only 5-9 team in front of them, the Atlanta Falcons. They have games the next two weeks against division rivals the Minnesota Vikings and Green Bay Packers, and given the state of their roster, there’s a decent chance they improve their draft stock.
The Vikings are in the NFC wild card hunt and might need to win out to make the playoffs, something they absolutely can do now that they’ve promoted Pistons executive Ed Stefanski’s son to offensive coordinator. And while the Packers have joined the Lions in the top-10 hinterlands, they will be favored in their Week 17 matchup at Lambeau Field so long as Aaron Rodgers plays.
As you know, we here at Draft Watch don’t advocate tanking, but with the playoffs no longer a possibility it’s important to note there is a difference between tanking and taking a forward-looking approach to the roster.
The Lions, by all means, can and should keep 2019 in mind as they maneuver forward the rest of the season. That means rookies Kerryon Johnson and Da’Shawn Hand should go on IR with their knee injuries, and that means fellow 2018 draft picks Tracy Walker and Tyrell Crosby should play expanded roles over the next two weeks.
The Lions did well for themselves in last year’s draft, taking all four of the above-mentioned players, plus starting left guard Frank Ragnow, in the first five rounds. And the trusty Cristal ball (we like to party here at Draft Watch) foresees similar success this coming April.
With a top-seven pick, the Lions should get a bona-fide playmaker for a defense that’s made steady improvement over the course of the season but still lacks blue-chip talent — unless they really, really want to shake things up and draft a quarterback, instead.
Of the six teams currently in front of the Lions in the draft order, just one — the Jacksonville Jaguars — is sure to be quarterback hunting come spring. The Arizona Cardinals (current owners of the No. 1 pick), New York Jets (No. 3) and San Francisco 49ers (No. 4) all acquired quarterbacks within the last 14 months, and the Falcons (Matt Ryan) and Oakland Raiders (Derek Carr; second pick) have established veterans at the position.
Now, we here at Draft Watch are not advocating the taking of a quarterback that high, but we clearly like to have fun with the draft process and what would be more adventurous than nabbing the first QB off the board?
Think of the possibilities. First, with a brewing quarterback battle that includes the draft’s top signal caller (Baker Mayfield and the Browns, anyone?) go ahead and pencil the Lions in for Hard Knocks next year. Yes, the Lions are one of a handful of teams the league can compel to do the show in 2019. The exemptions: Teams with a new coach, teams that have been on the show in the last 10 years, and teams that have made the playoffs in one of the last two seasons. No check, no check, no check.
Imagine how uptight everyone in Allen Park would be with cameras capturing their every move. The secretive 90th-man-on-the-roster transactions that have to wait until three minutes after Matt Patricia’s morning news conferences to be announced would now be captured on camera for everyone to see.
The omerta front-office members have taken about injuries — and sworn players and agents and others to uphold, lest they want to end up with a horse head in their bed — would be impossible to enforce. And Bob Quinn, who hasn’t spoken publicly going on eight months, would basically be doing a more in-depth news conference from his upstairs office every week.
Oh, there may be other more practical reasons to draft a quarterback high. It worked for the Kansas City Chiefs when they traded up to take Patrick Mahomes 10th overall then sat him for a year behind a veteran starter. And there's the fact that Matthew Stafford hasn’t been all that great this season.
But nothing trumps the improved odds it would give the Lions of landing on Hard Knocks, which is all the more reason it won’t happen.
So, with two games left and the end of the college football season upon us, here are five more realistic possibilities the Lions could land if Draft Watch is correct about that top-10 pick.
LSU CB Greedy Williams (sitting out bowl game): Williams is one of the best cornerbacks in the draft and a potential top-five pick. He has unusual size (6 feet 3), excellent play-making ability — he led the SEC in interceptions in 2017 — and would be the perfect complement to Darius Slay in the Lions’ inconsistent secondary.
Kentucky OLB/DE Josh Allen (Citrus Bowl vs. Penn State, Jan. 1): Ziggy Ansah’s time in Detroit is likely done, and the Lions need an edge rusher more than anything. Allen is big and long at 6 feet 5 and 260 pounds, and he lives in the backfield as both a pass rusher and run defender. The biggest question the Lions will have to answer is whether he can play right end, or if he’d be Devon Kennard’s backup at strong-side linebacker.
Georgia CB DeAndre Baker (Sugar Bowl vs. Texas, Jan. 1): Baker will challenge Williams and Washington’s Byron Murphy to be the first cornerback drafted, and he might be a better pure cover man than both. He doesn’t have Williams’ size at just 5 feet 11, but he’s not afraid to get his nose dirty in run support, which is something Patricia values.
Houston DT Ed Oliver (sitting out bowl game): Oliver was talked about as the potential No. 1 overall pick entering the season, but he missed time with injuries this year and had a public spat with his head coach. The Lions don’t need a defensive tackle with Hand, Damon Harrison and A’Shawn Robinson in the fold, but Oliver might be too good to pass up if he slides come draft day.
Clemson DE Clelin Ferrell (National semifinal vs. Notre Dame, Jan. 29): Ferrell is more of a true right end than Allen, though he might be a tick below his Kentucky counterpart in overall athletic ability. Ferrell has 20 sacks over the past two seasons and would fill a bigger need with more positional value than LSU linebacker Devin White or Alabama safety Deionte Thompson.
Contact Dave Birkett: dbirkett@freepress.com. Follow him on Twitter @davebirkett. Download our Lions Xtra app for free on Apple and Android!
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